By Alexander Osipovich

Bettors on Polymarket have stepped up their wagers that U.S. forces will enter Iran by April 30, and now assess the likelihood of such an outcome at 72%.

The chances of such a ground operation were hovering around 60% last week. They climbed further after the arrival of some 2,200 Marines from the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit in the Middle East over the weekend. The Wall Street Journal also reported on Sunday that President Trump was weighing a risky military operation to seize Iran's uranium.

Polymarket's betting contract will pay out if U.S. military personnel, including special forces, physically enter Iranian territory before the expiration date. Entering Iran's aerial or maritime territory doesn't count, according to the rules.

The contract has drawn more than $8.5 million in trading volume since it debuted in mid-March, Polymarket data shows.

Polymarket has a data partnership with Dow Jones, the publisher of The Wall Street Journal.

This item is part of a Wall Street Journal live coverage event. The full stream can be found by searching P/WSJL (WSJ Live Coverage).

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

March 30, 2026 05:26 ET (09:26 GMT)