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SINGAPORE, June 23 (Reuters) - Spot gold XAU= may fall into a range of $3,579-$3,813 per ounce in the third quarter, as suggested by a retracement analysis.
The analysis is based on the uptrend from $3,262, the final part of a five-wave cycle from the 2023 low of $1,628. The depth and duration of the fall from the January high of $5,595 confirm a completion of the cycle.
After two attempts, the metal finally broke the key support at $4,153, the 61.8% level. The next support will be at $3,813, a break below which may open the way toward the $3,262-$3,579 range.
Eventually, the market may revisit the low of $3,262, the wave (4) bottom. On the daily chart, a projection analysis on the downtrend from $5,419 reveals more fine-tuned targets.
Given that the market has broken the 100% level of $4,227, it may slide to $3,772, which is pointed by a dotted trendline. A lower trendline passing through the bottoms of the wave a and the wave c points at a more bearish target of $3,491, the 161.8% level.
Wave pattern suggests the progress of a wave 5, a part of a bigger wave (c) from $4,889. The wave 5 could at least travel to $3,946, assuming it is roughly equal to the wave 1.
Immediate resistance is at $4,227, a break above which could lead to a gain towards $4,389. A move beyond that level would suggest a reversal of the downtrend from $4,889, implying that the structure of the decline could be more complex than the simple pattern currently assumed.
* Wang Tao is a Reuters market analyst for commodities and energy technicals. The views expressed are his own.
** No information in this analysis should be considered as being business, financial or legal advice. Each reader should consult their own professional or other advisers for business, financial or legal advice regarding the products mentioned in the analyses.
(Reporting by Wang Tao; Editing by Eileen Soreng)