By Gabriel Burin
BUENOS AIRES, Sept 21 (Reuters) - Mexico's central bank will keep its benchmark interest rate steady for the third consecutive meeting on September 24, according to all economists polled by Reuters, with little expectation of a change anytime soon.
Banxico, as the bank is known, is likely to cite higher inflation risks in its policy statement, but the overall tone is expected to remain balanced in light of weak economic conditions and a tighter monetary stance in the US.
The bank's five-member board will maintain the benchmark rate at 6.50% this week, according to all 32 economists polled August 15-21, extending the current pause in a gradual easing cycle the bank implemented from 2024 to the start of this year.
Median estimates of quarterly forecasts projected Mexico's key rate remaining steady at least until the second half of 2028.
"The Bank of Mexico sees inflation trends as relatively aligned with its most recent forecasts, though the risk outlook obviously remains," said Jesus Lopez, deputy head of research at Banco Base.
"In fact it has become more complex, so they could mention that in the statement — at most, there might be some changes to the wording, particularly regarding the forward-looking section," he added.
Worries over potential ramifications of last week's US Federal Reserve interest rate hike have added to uncertainty about the future of Mexico's long-standing free trade agreement with Washington and Ottawa, analysts said.
Policymakers are expected to repeat their view of a soft economy, in line with the reduction of this year's growth estimate in Mexico's 2027 budget proposal.
Of 13 respondents who answered an extra question on Banxico's next move, eight predicted a rate cut, all at different times, while five saw the next move as an increase.
Mexico's annual inflation accelerated for the first time in five months from 3.12% in July to 3.26% in August, while core trends improved somewhat. Banxico targets a 2%-4% range for the headline measure.
Domestic consumer prices have picked up in recent weeks due to rising grain and crude oil costs resulting from Black Sea supply concerns as well as the US-Iran war.
(Other stories from the Reuters global economic poll)
(Reporting and polling by Gabriel Burin in Buenos Aires; Additional reporting by Noe Torres in Mexico City; Editing by Ross Finley and Jan Harvey)